Politics & Policies: Islamist radicals pose new threat in Africa
By Claude Salhani UPI International Editor Published November 30, 2005
WASHINGTON -- The Polisario Front - less known as the Popular Front for the Liberation of Saguia el-Hamra and Rio de Oro - a group fighting for the independence of Western Sahara could be turning to radical Islamism and international crime, warns a European intelligence analyst.
The Polisario is one of the longest running liberation movements -- still active some 30 years after the departure of the Spanish colonizer from Western Sahara. Its combat has shifted from fighting the Spaniards to fighting Morocco, who virtually annexed the northern two-thirds of the territory formerly known as the Spanish Sahara in 1976.
Following the withdrawal of Mauritania, Morocco annexed the rest of the territory in 1979. A guerrilla war with the Polisario Front contesting Rabat's sovereignty ended in 1991 when the United Nations brokered a cease-fire agreement. Yet a proposed referendum on the territory's final status has been repeatedly postponed.
As recently as the end of October the United Nations Security Council has extended the mandate of MINURSO -- the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara -- by six months, "despite obvious evidence that the referendum, expected to be passed since 1991 is impracticable," says Claude Moniquet of the European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center, a Brussels-based think tank specializing in terrorism.
Moniquet conducted an extensive study of the Polisario and the current situation in the region. The Brussels-based expert in terrorism fears the Polisario, initially a leftist-leaning organization formed during the Cold War, and which in the past received support from the Soviet Union, may now be turning to radical Islam. The danger is double-edged as in return for financial aide from radical Islamist groups the Polisario can offer organizations such as al-Qaida a large pool of potential recruits.
What follows are some of Moniquet's conclusions.
Following high-level U.S. intervention, the Polisario Front agreed to release several hundred Moroccan prisoners of war, some of whom had been detained for more than 30 years and who would seem to have suffered, in addition to the long detention, "massive and repeated maltreatment."
In so doing the Polisario hoped to atone for some of its wrongdoings and to bury various charges that have often been levied against it in the last 20 years. But if the actual fighting has ceased, the conflict is far from over.
Morocco, for its part, seems ready to accept a political solution that would involve broad Sahrawi independence within the Moroccan national territory. In other words, autonomy, rather than independence.
"It is clear moreover that despite its intransigence the Polisario Front represents only a fraction of the 'Sahrawi people,'" said Moniquet.
"As the United Nations and the Europeans have shown themselves to be incapable of solving the conflict, many eyes are now turning to the United States which, in the context of the 'war against terrorism' and their plan to democratize the Arab-Muslim world, has every interest in stabilizing the Maghreb," says Moniquet.
At the same time, any peace treaty must take into consideration the interests of the region's two other principal stakeholders -- Algeria and Morocco.
However, the way the Polisario is evolving is giving rise to new fears says Moniquet: "Some of its combatants and leaders are turning to terrorism, radical Islamism or international crime."
Left unchecked, this could threaten the stability of the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa and in the process affect the security of several African states. This, in the long run, will have a ripple effect on Europe as well as the U.S.
So where does it all go from here? Moniquet says the international community and the U.N. should have the courage and the lucidity to recognize that the independence solution is not viable and is even impossible given the violent opposition of one of the parties. Moniquet recommends the parties involved should "take the path of a negotiated political solution."
"Algeria," says Moniquet, "should refrain from interfering in a problem that concerns Morocco and the Sahrawi population, and in which it is not a stakeholder."
In his 80-page report Moniquet states that "Countries that have recognized the SADR should realize that this entity, with no real existence or future, is more of an obstacle to any political solution than a genuine emerging nation."
The United States, goes on to say Moniquet, should use its influence to support a negotiated solution.
The Polisario, initially a very structured organization, powerful and inspired by a hybrid ideology of a crossbred Marxist-Leninist, finds itself today at a crossroad.
Several analysts believe the region offers a potential breeding ground and recruitment center for militant Islamists, such as Osama bin-Laden's al-Qaida and its many affiliates.
While resolving the crisis in the Western Sahara might not be given high priority in Washington, it must be remembered that it is also part and parcel of the war against terrorism.
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