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منتدى المغرب و المغاربة حول العالم

Even as U.S. Invaded, Hussein Saw Iraqi Unrest as Top Threat

As American warplanes streaked overhead two weeks after the invasion began, Lt. Gen. Raad Majid al-Hamdani drove to Baghdad for a crucial meeting with Iraqi leaders. He pleaded for reinforcements to stiffen the capital's defenses and permission to blow up the Euphrates River bridge south of the city to block the American advance.


But Saddam Hussein and his small circle of aides had their own ideas of how to fight the war. Convinced that the main danger to his government came from within, Mr. Hussein had sought to keep Iraq's bridges intact so he could rush troops south if the Shiites got out of line.

General Hamdani got little in the way of additional soldiers, and the grudging permission to blow up the bridge came too late. The Iraqis damaged only one of the two spans, and American soldiers soon began to stream across.

The episode was just one of many incidents, described in a classified United States military report, other documents and in interviews, that demonstrate how Mr. Hussein was so preoccupied about the threat from within his country that he crippled his military in fighting the threat from without. Only one of his defenses — the Saddam Fedayeen — proved potent against the invaders. They later joined the insurgency still roiling Iraq, but that was largely by default, not design.

Ever vigilant about coups and fearful of revolt, Mr. Hussein was deeply distrustful of his own commanders and soldiers, the documents show. He made crucial decisions himself, relied on his sons for military counsel and imposed security measures that had the effect of hobbling his forces. He did this in several ways:

¶The Iraqi dictator was so secretive and kept information so compartmentalized that his top military leaders were stunned when he told them three months before the war that he had no weapons of mass destruction, and they were demoralized because they had counted on hidden stocks of poison gas or germ weapons for the nation's defense.

¶He put a general widely viewed as an incompetent drunkard in charge of the Special Republican Guard, entrusted to protect the capital, primarily because he was considered loyal.

¶Mr. Hussein micromanaged the war, not allowing commanders to move troops without permission from Baghdad and blocking communications among military leaders.

The Fedayeen's operations were not shared with leaders of conventional forces. Republican Guard divisions were not allowed to communicate with sister units. Commanders could not even get precise maps of terrain near the Baghdad airport because that would identify locations of the Iraqi leader's palaces.

Much of this material is included in a secret history prepared by the American military of how Mr. Hussein and his commanders fought their war. Posing as military historians, American analysts interrogated more than 110 Iraqi officials and military officers, treating some to lavish dinners to pry loose their secrets and questioning others in a detention center at the Baghdad airport or the Abu Ghraib prison. United States military officials view the accounts as credible because many were similar. In addition, more than 600 captured Iraqi documents were reviewed.

Overseen by the Joint Forces Command, an unclassified version of the study is to be made public soon. A classified version was prepared in April 2005. Titled "Iraqi Perspectives on Operation Iraqi Freedom, Major Combat Operations," the study shows that Mr. Hussein discounted the possibility of a full-scale American invasion.

"A few weeks before the attacks Saddam still thought the U.S. would not use ground forces," Tariq Aziz, the former Iraqi deputy prime minister, told American interrogators. "He thought they would not fight a ground war because it would be too costly to the Americans."

Despite the lopsided defeat his forces suffered during the 1991 Persian Gulf war, Mr. Hussein did not see the United States as his primary adversary. His greater fear was a Shiite uprising, like the one that shook his government after the 1991 war.

His concern for the threats from within interfered with efforts to defend against an external enemy, as was evident during a previously unknown review of military planning in 1995. Taking a page out of the Russian playbook, Iraqi officers suggested a new strategy to defend the homeland. Just as Russia yielded territory to defeat Napoleon and later Hitler's invading army, Iraq would resist an invading army by conducting a fighting retreat. Well-armed Iraqi tribes would be like the Russian partisans. Armored formations, including the Republican Guard, would assume a more modest role.

Mr. Hussein rejected the recommendation. Arming local tribes was too risky for a government that lived in fear of a popular uprising.

New York times

While conventional military planning languished, Mr. Hussein's focus on internal threats led to an important innovation: creation of the Fedayeen paramilitary forces. Equipped with AK-47's, rocket propelled grenades and small-caliber weapons, one of their primary roles was to protect Baath Party headquarters and keep the Shiites at bay in the event of a rebellion until more heavily equipped Iraqi troops could crush them.

Controlled by Uday Hussein, a son of the Iraqi leader, the Fedayeen and other paramilitary forces were so vital to the survival of the government that they "drained manpower" that would otherwise have been used by Iraq's army, the classified report says.

Mr. Hussein was also worried about his neighbor to the east. Like the Bush administration, Mr. Hussein suspected Iran of developing nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Each year the Iraqi military conducted an exercise code-named Golden Falcon that focused on defense of the Iraq-Iran border.

The United States was seen as a lesser threat, mostly because Mr. Hussein believed that Washington could not accept significant casualties. In the 1991 war, the United States had no intention of taking Baghdad. President George H. W. Bush justified the restraint as prudent to avoid the pitfalls of occupying Iraq, but Mr. Hussein concluded that the United States was fearful of the military cost.

Mr. Hussein's main concern about a possible American military strike was that it might prompt the Shiites to take up arms against the government. "Saddam was concerned about internal unrest amongst the tribes before, during or after an attack by the U.S. on Baghdad," Mr. Aziz told his interrogators. Other members of Mr. Hussein's inner circle thought that if the Americans attacked, they would do no more than conduct an intense bombing campaign and seize the southern oil fields.

Steps to Avoid War

Mr. Hussein did take some steps to avoid provoking war, though. While diplomatic efforts by France, Germany and Russia were under way to avert war, he rejected proposals to mine the Persian Gulf, fearing that the Bush administration would use such an action as an excuse to strike, the Joint Forces Command study noted.

In December 2002, he told his top commanders that Iraq did not possess unconventional arms, like nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, according to the Iraq Survey Group, a task force established by the C.I.A. to investigate what happened to Iraq's weapons programs. Mr. Hussein wanted his officers to know they could not rely on poison gas or germ weapons if war broke out. The disclosure that the cupboard was bare, Mr. Aziz said, sent morale plummeting.

To ensure that Iraq would pass scrutiny by United Nations arms inspectors, Mr. Hussein ordered that they be given the access that they wanted. And he ordered a crash effort to scrub the country so the inspectors would not discover any vestiges of old unconventional weapons, no small concern in a nation that had once amassed an arsenal of chemical weapons, biological agents, and Scud missiles, the Iraq survey group report said.

Mr. Hussein's compliance was not complete, though. Iraq's declarations to the United Nations covering what weapons of mass destruction stocks it had possessed and how it had disposed of them were old and had gaps. And Mr. Hussein would not allow his weapons scientists to leave the country, where United Nations officials could interview them outside the government's control.

Seeking to deter Iran and even enemies at home, the Iraqi dictator's goal was to cooperate with the inspectors while preserving some ambiguity about its unconventional weapons — a strategy General Hamdani, the Republican Guard commander, later dubbed in a television interview "deterrence by doubt."

That strategy led to mutual misperception. When Secretary of State Colin L. Powell addressed the Security Council in February 2003, he offered evidence from photographs and intercepted communications that the Iraqis were rushing to sanitize suspected weapons sites. Mr. Hussein's efforts to remove any residue from old unconventional weapons programs were viewed by the Americans as efforts to hide the weapons. The very steps the Iraqi government was taking to reduce the prospect of war were used against it, increasing the odds of a military confrontation.

Even some Iraqi officials were impressed by Mr. Powell's presentation. Abd al-Tawab Mullah Huwaish, who oversaw Iraq's military industry, thought he knew all the government's secrets. But Bush administration officials were so insistent that he began to question whether Iraq might have prohibited weapons after all. "I knew a lot, but wondered why Bush believed we had these weapons," he told interrogators after the war, according to the Iraq Survey Group report.

As the war approached, Mr. Hussein took steps to suppress an uprising. Fedayeen paramilitary units were dispersed throughout the south, as were huge stashes of small-caliber weapons. Mr. Hussein divided Iraq into four sectors, each led by a member of his inner circle. The move was intended to help the government fend off challenges to its rule, including an uprising or rioting.

Reflecting Mr. Hussein's distrust of his own military, regular army troops were deployed near Kurdistan or close to the Iranian border, far from the capital. Of the Iraqi Army, only the Special Republican Guard was permitted inside Baghdad. And an array of restraints were imposed that made it hard for Iraq's military to exercise command.

Sultan Hashim Ahmad al-Tai, Mr. Hussein's defense minister who had distinguished himself during the Iran-Iraq war, held an important title, for example. But he had little influence. "I effectively became an assistant to Qusay, only collecting and passing information," he told interrogators, referring to a son of Mr. Hussein.

To protect Baghdad, Mr. Hussein selected Brig. Gen. Barzan abd al-Ghafur Solaiman Majid al-Tikriti, a close cousin, to head the Special Republican Guard even though he had no field experience, had failed military staff college and was a known drunkard. Asked about his military skills, General Tai laughed out loud. Even so, the Special Republican Guard commander was closely monitored by Mr. Hussein's agents and later told American interrogators that he had held the most dangerous job in Iraq. "They watched you go to the bathroom," he said. "They listened to everything you said and bugged everything."

Once the war began, field commanders faced numerous restrictions, including bans on communications, to minimize chances of a coup.

"We had to use our own reconnaissance elements to know where the other Iraqi units were located on our flanks," the commander of the First Republican Guard Corps told interrogators. "We were not allowed to communicate with our sister units."

Even as the Americans were rapidly moving north, Mr. Hussein did not appreciate the seriousness of the threat. While the Fedayeen had surprised the allied forces with their fierce resistance and sneak attacks, Iraqi conventional forces were overpowered.

At an April 2 meeting, General Hamdani, the commander of the Second Republic Guard Corps, correctly predicted that the American Army planned to drive through the Karbala Gap on the way to Baghdad. General Tai, the Iraqi defense minister, was not persuaded. He argued that the attack in the south was a trick and that the main American offensive would come from the west, perhaps abetted by the Israelis. That day, Mr. Hussein ordered the military to prepare for an American attack from Jordan.

As a sop, General Hamdani received a company of Special Operations forces as reinforcements and was finally granted permission to destroy the Euphrates River bridge southwest of Baghdad. But it was too little, too late.

By April 6, the day after the first United States Army attack on Baghdad, the so-called thunder run, Mr. Hussein's desperate predicament began to sink in. At a safe house in the Mansour district of Baghdad, he met with his inner circle and asked Mr. Aziz to read an eight-page letter.

Mr. Hussein showed no emotion as the letter was read. But Mr. Aziz later told interrogators that the Iraqi leader seemed to be a defeated man, and the letter appeared to be his farewell. His rule was coming to an end.

"We didn't believe it would go all the way to Baghdad," a senior Republican Guard staff officer later told his interrogators. "We thought the coalition would go to Basra, maybe to Amara, and then the war would end."

C'est peut-etre long mais je crois que c'est bien la premiere fois qu'un article est publié au sujet de la gestion interne de la guerre par Saddam.


Regardez comment cet imbécile a mené son pays vers une defaite rapide et sure...

merci , comme d habitud la guerre est une science , ce n est plus un jeu de hasard .

Est-ce qu'il y a quelqu'un d'aussi imbécile pour interdire à ses unités de communiquer entre elles ?

Est-ce qu'il y a quelqu'un d'aussi imbécile pour craindre plus une invasion par l'est qu'une invasion par le sud. Alors que toute la planète savait que la plus grande partie des troupes américaines étaient postée au sud de l'Iraq ?

Est-ce qu'il y quelqu'un d'aussi imbécile pour donner les commandes des unités les plus importantes à des saoulons qui n'ont aucune connaissance du terrain ?

Et dire qu’il voulait gagner la guerre… pffff

le président d'une république arabe révolutionaire.
il était le héros pour bcp de marocains et d'arabes pourtant.

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Hichamo a écrit:
Regardez comment cet imbécile a mené son pays vers une defaite rapide et sure...

Citation
Hichamo a écrit:
Est-ce qu'il y a quelqu'un d'aussi imbécile pour interdire à ses unités de communiquer entre elles ?

Est-ce qu'il y a quelqu'un d'aussi imbécile pour craindre plus une invasion par l'est qu'une invasion par le sud. Alors que toute la planète savait que la plus grande partie des troupes américaines étaient postée au sud de l'Iraq ?

Est-ce qu'il y quelqu'un d'aussi imbécile pour donner les commandes des unités les plus importantes à des saoulons qui n'ont aucune connaissance du terrain ?

Et dire qu’il voulait gagner la guerre… pffff

Salam

Tu as totalement raison Hichamo.Saddam Hussein était paranoiaque au point ou il voyait constamment des complots autour de lui,en particulier venant de l'armée.Il y avait d'aillers de nombreuses raisons de vouloir le renverser aprés les nombreux crimes et erreurs qu'il a fait.D'ailleurs il avait crée la Garde Republicaine car il avait aucune confiance en l'armée reguliere.Il multipliait les services de renseignement et de securité pour qu'ils se neutralisent...et eviter un coup d'Etat.J' ai aussi lu que beaucoup d'unités,meme durant la guerre,avait peu de munitions sur ordre du President lui meme car il craignait qu'ils ne se retournent contre lui...Mais durant la guerre de 2003 il y a vait aussi une crise de confiance au sein de l'armée(c'est du en partie à Saddam) car ils pouvaient rendre la tache plus difficile aux USionistes en detriuisant des ponts,en faisant rompre les digues...Pur la bataille de Bagdad elle n' a pas eu lieu car meme la garde republicaine a trahi.C'est un general irakien qui a donné le plan de defense de Bagdad 1 mois avant le debut du conflit à 2 espions allemands.Un general de la garde republicaine et cousin de Saddam a donné ordres à ses troupes de ne pas combattre aprés avoir été acheté par les USionistes.Cette fameuse armée irakienne s'est surtout distinguée dans la repression du peuple.La guerre en Irak a commencée aprés la chute de Saddam,et elle est encore en train de se dérouler.

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bikhir a écrit:
le président d'une république arabe révolutionaire.
il était le héros pour bcp de marocains et d'arabes pourtant.

Citation
Hichamo a écrit:
Regardez comment cet imbécile a mené son pays vers une defaite rapide et sure...

Salam

Bikhir,permets moi dee te dire que tes "Héros" valent pas mieux....

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bikhir a écrit:
le président d'une république arabe révolutionaire.
il était le héros pour bcp de marocains et d'arabes pourtant.

Citation
Hichamo a écrit:
Regardez comment cet imbécile a mené son pays vers une defaite rapide et sure...

Bonjour à tous

J’ajouterais, un criminel marionnette de la guerre Iran-Irak, criminel de millions d’Irakiens, opposants Kurdes, chiites . …

Venue au pouvoir par la force, il en a été délogé par plus fort que lui, si il était resté un de ses fils aurait repris l’entreprise familiale, une autre dans le monde arabe.

Ceci n’enlève en rien à l’illégalité de la présence américaine en Irak.

Amicalement.

Citation
qutuz a écrit:

Citation
bikhir a écrit:
le président d'une république arabe révolutionaire.
il était le héros pour bcp de marocains et d'arabes pourtant.

Citation
Hichamo a écrit:
Regardez comment cet imbécile a mené son pays vers une defaite rapide et sure...

Salam

Bikhir,permets moi dee te dire que tes "Héros" valent pas mieux....

qutuz,
C'est drole j'ai pensé à exactement la même chose

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mailaud a écrit:

Bonjour à tous

J’ajouterais, un criminel marionnette de la guerre Iran-Irak, criminel de millions d’Irakiens, opposants Kurdes, chiites . …

Venue au pouvoir par la force, il en a été délogé par plus fort que lui, si il était resté un de ses fils aurait repris l’entreprise familiale, une autre dans le monde arabe.

Ceci n’enlève en rien à l’illégalité de la présence américaine en Irak.

Amicalement.

Tout a fait ce criminel devait être chasser du pouvoir par tous les moyens. Avec tous les drames et les humiliations que l'invasion amérocaine a occasioné au moins elle a permit de sortir les iraqiens de cette opression inqualifiable qu'ils subissaient depuis des decennies.

La question maintenant est est-ce que cette dictature va se transformer en un coup de baguette magique en une vrai démocratie. Les iraqiens se battent depuis presque trois ans maintenant pour gagner cette democratie mais ils ne voient pas encore le bout du tunnel. Prions pour qu'ils y arrivent...

l'espirt obtus est dennominateur commun a bcp .

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Hichamo a écrit:

qutuz,
C'est drole j'ai pensé à exactement la même chose

Salam

Mr Bikhir explique nous c'est quoi un esprit obtu.

un esprit borné, fermé, a la limite de l'extremisme. mais ce n'est pas le sujet.

j'ai juste avance une remarque. je trouve effectivement triste que les arabes ne prennent pas de lecons. meme cette analyse - que je n'ai pas encore lue mais dont le titre est revelateur - n'est pas faite par les arabes. ces derniers sont juste bons a crier au scandale et a la dennonciation.

sadam n'est pas le seul. presque tous les autres presidents arabes ont planqué leurs republiques contre le mur, ce apres avoir subit a leurs peuples guerre et misere.

Citation
bikhir a écrit:
un esprit borné, fermé, a la limite de l'extremisme. mais ce n'est pas le sujet.

j'ai juste avance une remarque. je trouve effectivement triste que les arabes ne prennent pas de lecons. meme cette analyse - que je n'ai pas encore lue mais dont le titre est revelateur - n'est pas faite par les arabes. ces derniers sont juste bons a crier au scandale et a la dennonciation.

sadam n'est pas le seul. presque tous les autres presidents arabes ont planqué leurs republiques contre le mur, ce apres avoir subit a leurs peuples guerre et misere.

Salam

Le "presque tous" n'inclut evidemment pas M6.Tu critiques les autres mais tu fais partie du lot.Parceque quand on suit toutes tes analyses,les aure arabes sont dans l'erreur,sauf le Maroc bizaremment,alors qu'il est dans la meme réalité,dans les memes logiques que les autres meme si chacun a une specificité.Tant que tu resteras dans ce schema d'analyse tu seras pas credible,parceque tout ce que tu dis sur les autres arabes peut aussi s'appliquer au Maroc.

a3oudhou billah! le Maroc n'est pas dans la meme logique. il n'a rien a voir avec ces follies!

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qutuz a écrit:
Salam

Le "presque tous" n'inclut evidemment pas M6.Tu critiques les autres mais tu fais partie du lot.Parceque quand on suit toutes tes analyses,les aure arabes sont dans l'erreur,sauf le Maroc bizaremment,alors qu'il est dans la meme réalité,dans les memes logiques que les autres meme si chacun a une specificité.Tant que tu resteras dans ce schema d'analyse tu seras pas credible,parceque tout ce que tu dis sur les autres arabes peut aussi s'appliquer au Maroc.

hichamo, I read the couple first sentences of your first article and I couldn't stop laughing. is the author talking about wadi almakhazen battle or the war against Iraq? .

maybe bombing the bridge was gonna stop the American!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?