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Europe: Le besoin et la crainte des immigres
11 juin 2004 11:08
L´Europe a un besoin enorme d´immigres surtout la matiere grise,mais elle les craint. Ce manque est du principalement aux problemes demographiques serieux que l´Europe fait face. Des etudes et des estimations montrent que dans deux generations l´Europe sera vieille avec un taux eleve des gens a l´age de la retraite, et qui sera plus de 65% de la population dans certains pays. En Allemagne par exemple le probleme demographique etait un sujet tabou et on commence a peine a discuter de ce sujet ouvertement dans les medias et les tribunes publiques...

Voici un article illustratif du journal NY Times ( en Anglais ) sur cette situation:
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Europe Knows It Needs a Lot of Immigrants. But It Also Fears Them.
By FLOYD NORRIS

Published: June 11, 2004

MARRAKESH, Morocco

TERRORISM has come to Europe. The Continent's economic growth seems to lag perennially behind that of the United States. But neither of those things topped the list of worries for some European business and political leaders who gathered here this week for an international business conference.

Instead, they worried about babies, or more specifically, about a lack of them. The tone was set by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, the former president of France, who presented a series of demographic projections indicating that many European countries would be losing population at a rapid rate within a couple of generations. Meanwhile, he said, nothing of the kind would be happening in the United States, thanks to immigration.

Those who remember the fears of the 1970's, when there was Malthusian talk of too many people using up the world's resources, might think that a time of falling population would not be all that bad.

In her 1995 novel "Children of Men,'' P. D. James invented a time when, because of some environmental disaster, no babies had been born for decades. Real estate prices fell and some towns gradually lost all their inhabitants, but what made the situation unbearable was the fear the human race was vanishing.

There is no danger of that now, of course, at least not from demographic trends. Europeans have babies, just not enough of them to provide future workers to pay their parents' and grandparents' retirement benefits. The pay-as-you-go system seems to demand more workers just to finance benefits already promised.

There is an obvious solution, as Jean-René Fortou, the chief executive of Vivendi Universal, noted when asked about Mr. Giscard d'Estaing's demographic worries. ''The Mediterranean was for many centuries a single world,'' he said. ''We could have very strong synergies with the countries'' of North Africa, where population growth continues.

Now the opposite is happening. Michael Fuchs, co-owner of the Impex Group, a German advertising company and a Christian Democratic member of that country's Parliament, dismissed talk of immigrants seeking work. They were, he said, trying to get welfare benefits.

Moroccan businessmen at the world congress of the International Chamber of Commerce said European visas had become difficult to obtain. Europe fears that visitors will stay, whether as terrorists, welfare recipients or workers who take jobs when unemployment is already high.

Taieb Fassi-Fihri, an official in the Moroccan foreign ministry, complained about ''the nonintegration'' of Europe with the Arab world, saying that as the European Union expands it becomes less open to his region.

The newer members of the European Union have learned that it will be years before their citizens can seek work in most of the older members. There is considerable hostility to Turkey's application to join the union, with Mr. Giscard d'Estaing suggesting it would make more sense for Russia to enter. ''Russia is a European country,'' he said. ''Will the E.U. expand to cover half the planet?''

To Norbert Walter, the chief economist of Deutsche Bank, the solution is obvious: first reform the European welfare states, to reduce benefits for those who do not work, then welcome immigrants.

But don't bet on that happening. ''People do not like reforms,'' said Claude Bébéar, the chairman of the supervisory board at AXA, the insurance company. The young people who will suffer as tax burdens rise to support the growing number of retirees seldom vote, he added.

Europe believes it needs more people to support its system. But it also fears what would happen if they came.

Source: [www.nytimes.com]

M
11 juin 2004 11:14

Salut Aziz

En Allemagne, le probleme demographique est un "ticking time bomb".
Officiellement, l' Allemagne est un pays d' immigration grace a l' accord obtenu par les parties politiques. En Espagne et l' Italie. la situation est pire.

Amicalement------------------------------------------------------------------- The unexamined life is not worth living. Socrates -------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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