Oct. 23, 2006 issue - It promises to be the epitome of Dubai glitz: a golf-course-cum-ski-resort rising from the desert sand, complete with towering glass-and-chrome conference buildings, exclusive shopping streets, luxury hotels, fake beachfronts, giant water parks and millionaires' gold-encrusted villas. But Emaar—Dubai's largest property group—isn't building this Arabian oasis anywhere near the United Arab Emirates. This is Oukaimeden—in Morocco. It's also a near image of what real-estate analysts are calling "New Dubais" in Syria, Pakistan, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Turkey and half a dozen other countries.
Dubai has already built a resort of man-made islands in the shape of a palm tree so large, it is visible from space. Another resort shaped like a map of "The World" is coming. Now the city-state is taking its taste for property as spectacle worldwide. Earlier this year Dubai's big three companies—Emaar, Dubai Holding and Dubai World, all controlled by the ruling Maktoum family—announced plans to spend $40 billion on luxury projects in Pakistan, including two giant man-made island resorts off Karachi. This summer Dubai made a $19 billion commitment to develop Moroccan resort towns like Oukaïmeden, an improbable oasis for golf and skiing in the Atlas mountains. The emirate is playing the lead role in constructing the $27 billion King Abdullah City on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia—the largest private development in the kingdom's history.
The vision everywhere is exactly the same: glamorous, palm-covered, Dubai-style gated communities. Each of them will boast every luxury amenity imaginable—from Rodeo Drive-style designer shopping streets to five-star spas and first-class business facilities—in order to attract foreign tourists, multinational corporate offices and bundles of direct investment. Like Dubai's Media or Internet City free zones, many of the new developments are adopting internal rules to entice foreigners—like legalized drinking and gambling in otherwise Islamic countries. Local officials aren't quibbling. In order to sustain the high-end nature of the properties, Dubai companies are also investing in cleaning up nearby areas, building roads, and creating jobs.
The ambition is undeniable, but is there demand for such extravagant developments? "Cynicism about the 'Dubai model'—that it was a bubble—is dead," says Andrew Jeffreys, CEO of the Oxford Business Group, a regional consultancy. Jordan, Algeria and Syria face a severe shortage of luxury apartments and office spaces for rich locals, expat oil tycoons, Gulf millionaires wanting second homes or large businesses. In Syria, rents in small business towers are now as high as downtown Los Angeles. "It's not 'build and they will come,' " says Jeffreys, "It's 'build and they're already here.' "
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